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2006 FTA Revenue Estimating Conference

Papers and Presentations

 

Monday - September 18
General Session   (Crystal Ballroom )
 
General Economic Outlook
  Nigel Gault, Global Insight

Regional Economic Outlook
  Mark McMullen, Moody's Economy.com

Fiscal Outlook of the States - An Update
  Ron Snell, National Conference of State Legislatures
Streamlined Sales Tax Project
  Bruce Johnson, Utah State Tax Commission
Lunch   (Crystal Ballroom)

    Agents of Impatience
  speaker: Gary Cornia, Brigham Young University
                
Concurrent Breakout Sessions
Session I: Sectorial Economic Outlook   (Mayfair)
Moderator: Susan Mesner

Housing Outlook, Joe Elling, Weyerhaeuser

Automotive Outlook, Kim Hill, Center for Automotive Research

Outlook for the Technology Sector, Mike Raimondi, Global Insight
Session II: Managing a Research Section   (Kent)
Moderator: Natalie Davila


How to Survive in a Bureaucracy, Julia Friedman, District of Columbia Office of Revenue Analysis

Communications Issues in an Economic Research Unit, Rachel Moskowitz, New Mexico Taxation & Revenue Department

Tuesday, September 19
Concurrent Breakout Sessions
Session I: Issues in Revenue Forecasting   (Mayfair)
Moderator: Michael Allen


Another April Surprise In California—Causes and Implications, Brad Williams, California Legislative Analysis Office

Collaborating Efforts in Revenue Forecasting, Mark McMullen, Moody’s Economy.com and Natalie Davila, Illinois Department of Revenue

Forecasting Value Added, Robert Cox, Kentucky Office for Economic Analysis

Session II: Issues in Corporate Tax Reform   (Kent)
Moderator: Hector Vielma


Fiscal Impacts of Implementing Entity Level Taxation for Pass-Through Entities -- Lessons learned in Kentucky, Greg Harkenrider, Kentucky Office of the State Budget Director

That Darn CAT - Ohio's Tax Reform One year Later, Fred Church, Ohio Department of Taxation

New Jersey's CBT Reform: Act II, Richard Kaluzny and Ranjana Madhusudhan, New Jersey Department of Treasury

Concurrent Breakout Sessions
Session I: Forecasting Economic Turning Points  (Mayfair)
Moderator: Michael Kennedy


Leading Indicators of Cyclical State Revenues: Beyond the Regional Economic Drivers
, John Shelnutt, Arkansas Department of Finance Administration

State-Specific Economic Indicators, Greg Harkenrider, Kentucky Office of the State Budget Director

Assessing Relative Component Contributions to Change in the Oregon Index of Leading Indicators, Michael Kennedy, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Session II: Issues with the Streamlined Sales Tax Project (Cambridge/Oxford)
Moderator: Lorrie Brown


Panel: Christian Weiss, Florida Department of Revenue
          Greg Potegal, Washington Department of Revenue
          Lorrie Brown, Washington Department of Revenue
          Bruce Johnson, Utah State Tax Commission

Session III: Local Option Income Taxes   (Kent)
Moderator: Arthur Friedson


Local Income Tax for School Finance In New York State: A Primer, Arthur Friedson, New York State Department of Taxation & Finance
[Paper]

Local School Income Taxes in Ohio [Paper], Michael Sobul, Ohio Department of Taxation

The Estimated First-Year Impact on Property Taxes of LD 1, Michael Allen, Maine Revenue Services

Michigan's Experience with School Finance Reform, Jeff Guilfoyle, Michigan Department of Treasury

School Aid Funding from State Taxes in New Jersey, Ranjana Madhusudhan, New Jersey Division of Taxation

Lunch (on your own)
Concurrent Breakout Sessions
Session I: Issues with Cigarette Excise Taxation  (Mayfair)
Moderator: Susan Mesner


NYS/NYC Smoking Bans and the Effect on Bar/Restaurant Sales, Bill Raleigh, New York State Department of Taxation & Finance

The Effect of Sub-State Cigarette Tax Changes, Hans Zigmund, Illinois Department  of Revenue

Estimating the Weighted Average Retail Price of Cigarettes, Randy Sanford, Minnesota Department of Revenue

How Border Sales Can Alter the Yield of a Cigarette Tax: Kentucky's Cigarette Surtax, Greg Harkenrider, Kentucky Office of the State Budget Director

Session II: Issues with Data Base Development & Data Mining   (Kent)
Moderator: Patrice Cohen


Using SAS Views to Simplify Data Maintenance and Increase Data Integrity, Patrice Cohen, New York State Department of Taxation & Finance

A Comparison of Electronic & Paper Tax Return Filers, Amy Harris & Jay Munson, Iowa Department of Revenue 
[Paper]

A Warehouse with Many Floors and Many Doors: Data Warehousing and Mining at the Iowa Dept. of Revenue, Michael Lipsman, Iowa Department of Revenue
[Paper]

Data Mining, Data Integrity -- Florida Experience, Yen Chen, Florida Departmentt of Revenue

The Electronic Data Warehouse (EDW) Experience of Massachusetts DOR, Kazim P. Ozyurt and Howard Merkowitz, Massachusetts Dept of Revenue

 
Wednesday, September 20
General Session   (Mayfair Ballroom)
 

The Elderly Population and Iowa Tax Revenues: As One Goes Up, Must the Other Come Down?, Amy Harris, Iowa Department of Revenue
[Paper]

 
Discussant: Comparison with Minnesota, Paul Wilson, Minnesota Department of Revenue
 

Whatever Happened to Dynamic Revenue Analysis in California? [paper], David Vasche, California Legislative Analyst

 
Effective Tax Rates Facing Low- and Moderate Income Families: Modeling the Impact of Policy Changes 1998-2004 , Paul Wilson, Minnesota Dept of Revenue
 
Update on Research Roundtable Activities, Michael Kennedy, Chair & Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
 
Invitation to North Carolina in 2007, Karl Knapp, North Carolina Department of Revenue